Global Warming at YellowAirplane, History Timeline
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  The History of Global Warming and Knowledge of Global Warming, History Timeline.

What is the History of Global Warming?  When did we first start to learn about Global Warming?  The Climate Change, Global Warming, history is shown in this Global Warming Timeline.

 

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21,000 years ago was the Last Glacial Maximum or LGM.

10,000 years ago our human population was about 5 million

1753, Joseph Black discovered Carbon Dioxide.

1800 A.D. the population was about 1 billion

1824  Joseph Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere.

1827, Jean-Baptiste Fourier suggested that an atmospheric effect existed that kept the earth warmer than it would otherwise be. He used the analogy of a greenhouse.

This was the first Industrial Revolution where coal, railroads and land clearing speed up the greenhouse gas emissions.  Also better agricultural methods and better sanitation speed up the earth's population growth.

1859  John Tyndall was the leading experimental physicist of the 19th Century.  He Established "Greenhouse" properties of CO2

1870-1910  Second Industrial Revolution.  Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity and public health further accelerate the population growth.

1870  The level of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is determined to be about 290 ppm.  The mean global temperature between 1850 and 1870 was about 13.6 degrees C.   This was later measured in ancient ice.

1896  Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, suggested that carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal would enhance the earth's greenhouse effect and lead to global warming.

1897  Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks.

1900's Early in the Century, Svante Arrhenius, a chemist, claimed that an increase in CO2 in the Atmosphere also meant an increase in temperature.  The correlation between CO2 and the average temperature of the earth had been established.  He also did the first calculations of what the effect of doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere would be.

1914 - 1918  World War 1.  The governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies.

1920 - 1925  Opening of Texas and the Persian Gulf Oil Fields inaugurates an era of cheap energy.

1930s Early in the Century, British Engineer Guy Callendar was the first to pursue Global Warming in a sustained way.  he argued that an increase in CO2 was already occurring and that the earth's temperature is already increasing.  The Callendar Effect.

1930s  A Global Warming trend since the late Ninetieth Century was reported.

Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages.

1931 E. O. Hulbert published in the Physical Review, that calculation shows that doubling or tripling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases the surface temperature by 4 and 7 degrees respectively.

1938  Callendar argues that CO2 greenhouse Global Warming is underway, reviving interest in the question. 

1939 - 1945  World War II's Grand Strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields.

1945  The US Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding Global Climate Change.

1950's  Gilbert Plass, a pioneer in upper atmosphere spectroscopy resolved the absorption bands to much greater resolution and showed that the absorption bands of water vapor and CO2 did not overlap, meaning that CO2 levels were a real problem.

1956  Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset.

1956  Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere.

1956  Plass calculates that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiati0on balance.

1957  Soviet launch of the satellite Sputnik. 

1957 Suess and Revelle, Tellus scientific magazine, stated that Humans are performing a great geophysical experiment.  Fossil fuels were stored in the earth over hundreds of millions of years and now we are releasing them, in a huge manner, in the past couple of decades.

Revelle finds that CO2 produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans.

1957 Time Magazine printed an article titled, "One Big Greenhouse."  If surface temperatures would increase 1 to 2 degrees, secondary effects may occur.  Possibly the melting of the ice in Greenland which would flood the earth's costal lands. Also, that the sea temperatures would increase causing them not to hold the concentrations of CO2 as they previously did and further the amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere.

1958  Telescope studies show that a greenhouse effect raised temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water.

Keeling accurately measures of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere and detects an annual rise of CO2 in the atmosphere.  The level at this time is 315 ppm.  The mean global temperature is 13.9 degrees C.

1962  The Cuban Missile Crisis and the peak of the Cold War.

1964 Gordon MacDonald, NAS-NRC Publication 1236, Washington DC NAS Press 1964.  Scientific Problems of Weather Modification.  A report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification, Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, Warned of the inadvertent weather modification caused by CO2 from Burning fossil fuels may indeed change the climate.

1965  In a Boulder Colorado meeting on the causes of Climate Change, Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of the climate system and the possibility of sudden climate shifts.

1965 Presidents Science Advisory Committee, Board on Environmental Pollution Committee led by Revelle and Keeling Stated that by the year 2000 that there will be about 25% more CO2 in our atmosphere than at present.  And, this will modify the heat balance of the atmosphere to such an extent that marked changes in climate, not controllable through local or even national efforts, could occur.   Restoring the Quality of Our Environment.  Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, Presidents Science Advisory Committee, The White House, December 1965, on Page 9.

1965  Lyndon Johnson, Special Message to Congress.  "This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels."

1966  Emiliani's analysis of deep sea cores show the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to other small changes.

1967  The International Global Atmospheric Research Program was established.  Its purpose was mainly to gather data for better short range weather predictions.

1967  A computer simulation calculated that average global temperatures might increase by more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit, depending on the levels of carbon dioxide.

1967  Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that saying that doubling the CO2 levels would raise the world temperatures a couple of degrees.

1968  Studies suggest a possibility of the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheets would raise sea levels catastrophically.

1969  Neil Armstrong stands on the moon with Apollo 11. 

1969  Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice albedo feedbacks. 

1969  The Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements. 

1970  The First Earth Day. 

1970  The Creation of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA

1971  SMIC Conference of leading scientist reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans and calls for an organized research effort.

1971  Mariner 9 Spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars.  Also it finds indications of a radically different climate in the past.

1972  Ice core studies and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past which happened between relatively stable periods in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago.

1973  The Oil Embargo and the rise in the price of oil bring the First Energy Crisis. 

1974  Serious droughts since 1972 increase concern about Climate Change.

1975  Warnings about the environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and the discovery of danger to the Ozone Layer.

1976  Studies show that CFCs, Methane and Ozone can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect. 

1976  Deforestation and other ecosystem changes are recognized as major factors in the future of the climate.

1976  Eddy shows that there wee prolonged periods without sunspots in the past centuries which corresponded to cold periods.

1977  Scientific Opinion tends to converge on Global Warming and not cooling as being the major risk in the next century.

1977  Report by the NRC "Energy and Climate", headed by Robert White, NOAA director states that the CO2 may be serious. 

1978 Robert White in "Oceans and Climate: An Introduction", states that, "We now understand that industrial wastes, such as carbon dioxide released during the burning of fossil fuels, can have consequences for climate that pos4e a considerable threat to future society.  The scientific problems are formidable, the technological problems, unprecedented, and the potential economic and social impacts, ominous.

1979  The Second Oil Energy Crisis.  The strengthened Environmental Movement encourages renewable energy sources and inhibits the growth of Nuclear Energy. 

1979 JASON "The long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate,   Concerned about long term implications of dramatically increased coal use.  At current fossil fuel use rates, atmospheric CO2 likely to double by 2035.  And, this would perturb the climate by altering the irradiative properties of the atmosphere.  Their models for the atmosphere predicted that the average temperature would increase about 2 - 4 degrees C, but the large zonal differences, up to 10 - 12 decrees C at the poles.  The term "Polar Amplification" prediction is that the warming effect at the poles will be 4 to 5 times greater at the poles than the global average.

1979.  And, NRC Study Group on Carbon Dioxide, "Charney Report".  "A plethora of studies from diverse sources indicates a consensus that climate changes will result from man's combustion of fossil fuels and changes in land use.   "The close linkage between man's welfare and the climatic regime within which has society has evolved suggest that such climatic changes would have profound impacts on human society."

1981  The IBM Computers are introduced. 

1981  Hansen and others show that Sulfate Aerosols can significantly cool the climate.

1982  Strong Global Warming has been shown between the mid-1970s and now, with the warmest year on record being 1981.

1983  Reports from the US National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency spark a conflict and greenhouse warming becomes a prominent issue in mainstream politics. 

1985  Ramanathan and collaborators announce that global warming may come twice as fast as expected because of the rise in amounts of Methane gas and other trace greenhouse gases.

1985  The Villach Conference declares a consensus among experts to call on governments to consider an international agreement to restrict emissions.

1985  Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 and temperature went up and down together through the past ice ages, pointing to powerful biological and geochemical feedbacks.

1985  Broecker speculates that a reorganization of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation can bring swift and radical climate change.

1987  Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emissions of ozone destroying gasses.

1987  An ice core taken from Antarctica revealed an extremely close link between carbon dioxide levels and temperature going back to more than 100,000 years.

1988  News media coverage of Global Warming increases following a season of record head that droughts.

1988  The Toronto Conference calls for strict, specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions.  Margret Thatcher is the first major leader to call for action.

1988  Ice Core and Biological Studies confirm that living ecosystems give climate change feedback by the amount of methane that they produce and which could accelerate Global Warming.

1988 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was Established by the United Nations Environment Program and World Meteorological Organization.  The IPCC's first report found that the planet had warmed by 0.5 degrees C. in the past century.  The panel warned that only strong measures to halt rising greenhouse gases would prevent serious global warming.

1988 The National Energy Policy Act of 1988.  "...to establish a national energy policy that will quickly reduce the generation of carbon dioxide and trace gases as quickly as is feasible in order to slow the pace and degree of atmospheric warming... to protect the global environment."

1988  The New York Times, August 23, 1988.  "The issue of an overheating world has suddenly moved to the forefront of public concern."

1991  Mt. Pinatubo Explodes. 

1992  The Earth Summit took place in Rio de Janeiro.  Here, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed by 154 nations.  It agreed to prevent 'dangerous' warming from greenhouse gases and set voluntary targets for reducing emissions.

1993  Greenland ice cores suggest that great climate changes can occur within a single decade.

1995 Second Assessment Report from the IPCC, International Panel for Climate Change, states, "The balance of evidence suggest a discernible human impact on global climate."  Also that serious Global Warming is likely to come in the following century.

1997  Kyoto Treaty.  The Kyoto Protocol was agreed.  Where the UNFCCC agreed to voluntary targets, Koyoto was the first international treaty to set legally binding emissions cuts for industrialized nations.  It was signed by 178 countries and came into force in 2005.

1998  A Super El Nino causes weather disasters and the warmest year on record.

1999  Ramanathan detects a massive 'Brown Cloud' of aerosols coming from South Asia. 

2001 International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in their publication Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, p. 21.stated that, "Human activities are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents that absorb or scatter radiant energy.  Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations"  Also states that Global Warming has been unprecedented since the end of the last Ice Age and is very likely to cause serious surprises.

2003 Deadly Heat Wave in Europe.

2004 Discover Magazine  "the year that global warming got respect."

2005 June 2,  Governor Schwarzenegger
Western Governors Climate Initiative said, "I said the debate is over. We know the science. We see the threat, and we know the time for action is now"   San Francisco

2005  Kyoto Treaty goes into effect.

2005  Hurricane Katrina. 

2006 October, Former Vice President Al Gore said, "Each Passing day brings yet more evidence that we are now facing a planetary emergency, a climate crisis that demands immediate attention.."

2006  The Stern Report was published in the UK by HM Treasury.  It was the first report of its kind into the economic impact of climate change, and found that the cost of inaction far outweighed the cost of action.

2007  The UK government published the draft Climate Change Bill.  It aims to set legally binding targets for reducing emissions to at least 60 percent of the 1990 levels by 2050.

2007  The fourth IPCC report confirmed that there is a greater than ninety percent chance that global warming over the last 50 years is due to human activity.  It said that the planet had warmed 0.74 degrees C. since the beginning of the Twentieth Century. 

2007 CO2 level reaches 382 ppm and the average temperature is 14.5 degrees C.

2007  The UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, all of the world's nations agreed to negotiate on a deal to tackle dangerous climate change.  These deals are expected to happen in the next two years.

2007 Gallup Poll, 72% of Americans completely or mostly convinced that Global Warming is Happening.  62% believe that life on earth will continue without major disruptions only if society takes immediate and drastic action to reduce global warming. 

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What's the future of the planet, is it doom or is it evolution of our ideas.
Author Guy Dauncey talks about alternatives, but also the necessary idea shift to make it happen.
Everything is not doom, with just a couple of changes in our ideas, we can have a much better world to live in.

Watch the above video 28 minutes of a great interview.

 

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The background picture was taking by the Webmaster on the North Pole Expedition of 2003, of the sea ice while flying to the island of Spitsbergen, Norway in the Arctic Ocean.  I watched global warming happen in my nine years of North Pole Expedition evolvement.  It's real.

 
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The ice loss is way ahead of the most advanced climate change models.

 

 

 
 
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10-26-2008